Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs) Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs)

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To: Dan P who wrote (424)	11/21/1999 4:30:00 PM
From: Larry S.	Read Replies (2) of 972

Dan, et al, On 11/18, the Barron's GMI was 359.05, down significantly from the previous week's 419.86. With the POG up to 293.75 (11/19), the ratio was 1.22, down from the previous week's 1.44. The ratio one year ago was 1.37. There two things about this week's numbers that I should mentions. First, Kaplin has stated several times that a move down in the XAU during a period when the POG moves up is bearish. I would think the same argument would apply to the GMI. If so the move down is very bearish even though, as a contrary indicator, the lower value of the ratio suggests that we are closer to a bottom. Second, as indicated in my very recent posts, I have received information on the formulation of the GMI from Barron's. However, I can't reproduce their values of the GMI. I calculated numbers for each day of this past week and all were in the 370s. I calculate a value of 373 for Thursday, 11/18. I will contact Barron's again Monday and try to identify the error. I'm not at all sure that the drop from 419 to 359 is real. Cheers, Larry

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