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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Apollo who wrote (10889)	11/22/1999 1:28:00 AM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (2) of 54805

Qualcomm & Wireless Broadband: HDR... Best explanation I've seen on High Data Rate; from Andrew Seybold site on Wireless Roadmap; must register (free), ....below is snippet: Apollo wirelessroadmap.com "HDR Roadmap Qualcomm announced two HDR chips for handsets. They are both 100% compatible with their existing chip set. This allows handset manufacturers to literally stuff the board with one of the new chips instead of the current chip and have a HDR handset. The ease for handset providers to bring a HDR product to market is a significant winning factor for HDR compared to GSM/TDMA GPRS and EDGE based technologies. The first chip, called the iMSM 4500, supports HDR, IS-95A and IS-95B. IS-95A is the current cdmaOne technology used throughout the world. IS-95B is a version of cdmaOne that supports 64 Kbps data and is being implemented this year and early next year in Korea and Japan. It appears that US operators will pass on upgrading to IS-95B and go directly to 1X. The iMSM 4500 is scheduled for full production in Q1 of 2001. I would expect HDR handsets based on the iMSM 4500 to be available in Q2 2001. The second chip, iMSM 5500, supports HDR and 1X technologies. It is set for production in Q3 of 2001 with HDR/1X handsets available by the holidays of 2001. A handset using the iMSM 5500 technologies could easily roam between 1X data systems (153 kbps) and HDR systems (2.4 Mbps). This puts HDR well ahead of EDGE for TDMA and GSM systems (see roadmap). Conclusion Qualcomm can hardly lose with wireless data for their existing customers. If a carrier is completely voice-centric and follows the 3G roadmap from cdmaOne to cdma2000 1XRTT to cdma2000 3XRTT, Qualcomm sells them new technology (mainly chips that handset and infrastructure manufacturers use and technology licenses to other chip makers). If the carrier decides to add HDR, Qualcomm also wins. HDR is primarily a competitive offering for CDMA. Qualcomm told me that they will charge the same licensing fees for 1X and HDR, meaning that if a handset has both and costs the customer the same as a 1X-only handset their will be no additional licensing fee for HDR. If the handset manufacturer charges a premium for HDR, the license fee will go up. This clearly sounds like they want to make HDR as price competitive as possible. The combination of 1X and HDR technologies appear to provide all of the technology capabilities and efficiencies of the ultimate 3G standards. Since both of these technologies are considered to be minor upgrades to existing cdmaOne systems, Qualcomm is providing CDMA operators with 3G capabilities at a fraction of the cost compared to what a GSM or TDMA operator will need to spend on upgrading to 3G (called wideband CDMA or W-CDMA by those operators). This combination of 1X and HDR also beats 3G to market by at least two years?probably three to five years. Qualcomm is not ?betting the company? on HDR as they did 10 years ago on CDMA?they don?t need to. I hear many voices criticizing HDR for not being a standard and not being on the 3G track. I remind them that CDMA was not a standard 10 years ago either. Do not count HDR out; if it makes the most economic sense to provide 3G capabilities alongside 1X the operators will adopt it. Keep a lookout for HDR trials by operators over the next two years. This will be a bellwether indicator if high-speed wireless data will be widely available by 2002 from CDMA operators."

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