Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: BigBull who wrote (55148)	11/22/1999 9:07:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

Big Bull - predictions; why would anyone "mock" that ? Bull; I'd say you post is the general consensus here... and I wouldn't think many would disagree, let alone "pillorie, or mock" you...? Sure, we were due for a bit of a correction here; but certainly not a re-visit to OSX 60-65. Enough of one, to where taking profits and perhaps rotating to laggards (remaining fully invested) made sense; but not to a degree conversely - to where just holding is irrational. One main story here is for those who choose to take some profits off of these short term bursts; there is no shortage of rotation ideas. This continued volatility makes taking profits easier than it will be in mid, or late cycle. One can sell a land driller on a breakout, only to be able to steal a seismic company, or an E&P the next day... the volatility of the Oilpatch and the individual stories within the different subsectors have created a continued landscape of opportunity. Later in the cycle; holding through these small pullbacks will make sense; as there most likely will not be the number of laggards, or sheer value plays avaialble. And yes; we certainly will break thru OSX 100 - and 120ish looks to be the next stop and if it is to be - it certainly has to be in the next 6 mos; as we can not go through an entire Winter heating - drawdown season and not rally on $25+ crude oil and increased activity... 1.OSX 120 in 6 mos: ... I'd agree; we only need rig counts to move to levels to get the momenteum of dayrates trending upward ... how about OSX 200 in 2001 ? 2. "broader & stronger" ... hmmm; ? The 97-98 rally looked pretty broad to me. Actually, I think there are some differences; the offshore Rig Construction boom of `97 is not going to be here during BOOM 2000 imho; The North Sea and some Intnl markets are different; but the story will be the increased upside earnings capacity of "many" companies - due to the streamlining of operations and cost cutting that will create new highs in many companies. I think there will be some pockets & subsector niche's that will vastly outperform others; so stockpicking will not go unrewarded. 3. re: a correction to OSX 75-80 ... seems reasonable; short term 15-20% moves are certainly worth trading; - that used to be a major yearly move in the DOW ! - and we've had about 4-5 of them this year alone. A 15-20%ish correction is also a potential 30-40-60% move on margin and certainly opens up some "major" trading opportunities for those who trade with higher risk orientation. 4. "Drivers" ... agreed; "best of both worlds" imho; supply constraint and demand growth ! 5. "attempt to catch the bulk of the gains by holding..." ... awww C'Mon Bull (VBG) - no market timing , no stock picks, no trades (VBG)? 6. "selling at OSX 120" ...I'd imagine that we will take periodic "breathers" all along the way; personally - it just depends on how far & how fast. Those 20% 3 week moves have my finger on the cash register pretty fast; but a slow & steady non-stop move is a hold pattern... Bull; I pretty much agree - nice post.

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