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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (7219)	11/22/1999 9:08:00 AM
From: Ward Knutson	Read Replies (1) of 9719

Richard <<Not enough to conduct multi-center phase III trials sufficient to target worldwide registration for multiple indications>> The above is true, this is NOT what V1 said (multiple indications not stated). Without knowing the data they are compiling there is no way you can asses the options available to them. The problem with your blanket statement is neither of you know their development plan nor the data from the clinical trials. They are working on defining registration strategies and it would be reasonable to assume Phase II results would dictate the scope and direction of such a plan. This would also aid in the definition of an appropriate partnership. The need and timing would be more clear when you define your targets. I never stated that they would not partner, I merely am pointing out that as of today there is no need to have the deal inked. They have plenty of resources to aggressively continue the development at this point. You can well imagine the doors that open with a set of highly compelling Phase II data in hand. They will undoubtedly be operating more from a position of strength with strong Phase II information. <<I guess I expected better initial results in the phase IIs>> V1 stated the above directly contradicting his earlier enthusiasm for Phase II prostate initial results. Nothing additional has yet to be reported on Phase II, with the exception of increased excitement and optimism for the drug based on long-term treatment of many very ill cancer patients. He made the statement without support. Lastly, it is reasonable to assume Blitzer could have delivered on his Goal of European Partner, but at what cost? To ink a deal merely to meet a stated goal without consideration for the building knowledge as it relates to the potential for 114 would be a mistake. Is it not within the realm of possibility that Blitzer & company saw early signs of promise which altered the price tag for such deal. Undoubtedly building confidence along the development process would dictate waiting for more conclusive data to be compiled in efforts to make a better partnership deal for the company and shareholders.

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