It's extraordinarily difficult for any company, no matter how well-managed, to deal with a change that renders its products obsolete. Lester Thurow uses the example of GE: they independently invented the transistor at about the same time AT&T did, but they gave it to the vacuum tube division.
For a more recent example, how many of the big traditional retailers and print publishers have become Internet powerhouses? By my count, the answer is *zero.* (In fairness, the Internet battle isn't over yet, though.)
To my knowledge, neither INTC, MSFT, nor AMAT has previously faced a challenge as radical as the transistor was, as the Internet is, or as a post-silicon technology would be. IMO, the jury is still very much out regarding how well INTC will handle the post-PC era or how well MSFT will handle the Internet era. Since most of the post-silicon technologies I have seen are radically different from *anything* AMAT is currently doing, I have my doubts about their ability to make the jump, too.
Katherine |
