Barry: Full Disclosure
I started following Novell around the time that David Berlin (PC Week 11-27-95) mentioned that Novell was a possible takeover candidate and famed Dan Dorfman reported the same. So I undertook my own research and investigation. I had my contact in Utah check out any changes in the company attitude. Indeed, something was not business as usual. I watched as the stock started getting good momentum, there was a lot of activity in the options market, and it looked like things were going to pop. So I jumped in. Novell was about $20 at the time, and it’s been quite a ride since then. Unfortunately, everyone knows what happened. And I hate to boast about losses on a public board, but I’ve been burned.
Novell’s been selling off everything. And the more time that goes by without a takeover, the less attractive the company has become and will become, in my view. So I thought that I would carry the mantel of contrarian and voice the less positive side of the company.
I’m very much in favor of a takeover for financial reasons (get some investment back), as well as emotional (well, I was right, it just took a lot longer than I thought). Plus there are real people, good people who work at Novell. And if a company like IBM, or a progressive company like Sun, HP bought Novell, then there would be a good future for the employees. But alone, at this stage in the game, there is a real cloud. Ask any pilot and he will tell you that clouds are not good--some are innocuous, some are not.
So my question is: Why can so many armchair quarterbacks be saying that a merger would be in the best interest of the company, the shareholders, and the employees, yet management (who would be well compensated via options) dig in against it? Or is there more that is unseen? Maybe there really is no/little worth to the company (yes--cash, buildings, tangible assets, market share, etc.), but if there is no viable future, then what?
For the full text of David Berlin, see: pcweek.com
He is a favorite columnist of mine. And he called the Lotus merger.
As part of full disclosure, I should let you know that BYTE Magazine was the first computer magazine that I subscribed to. In the mid-80s I was in a bank in Biarritz, France. A teenager and his mom were talking with a banker on the best way they could convert francs to dollars to send a check to BYTE to get a subscription. They were really excited to get the magazine.
On another visit, friends of mine in the mountain resort of Jaén, Spain, had just gotten their first PC, and, sure enough, they too had a new copy of BYTE. I guess that you would need to be there to get the full effect, but you’ve got a great magazine that gets read around the world.
Also, thanks for the tip on Berkshire Hathaway. That’s the first I’d heard of them being interested, and it’s nice to have another name to add. I thought Mr. Buffett and Bill G. were close friends. Now, do you think a little acquisition like Novell would come between their friendship?
RM |
