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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: Vector1 who wrote (7225)	11/22/1999 3:23:00 PM
From: David Cathcart	Read Replies (1) of 9719

V1, <<First my most recent action was to reduce my MOGN position.>> I know. My point was that since you last increased your MOGN position (at I believe $11 - $12), based on positive results in the prostate PII trial, you have had a change of opinion without seeing any negative PII data. I guess what I'm saying is that either your reason to increase the position was perhaps relatively weak, or you appear to be losing patience right when the reason you increased the position is reaching fruition. <<With compeling results Blitzer could cut a good deal now.>> Blitzer's background is in cutting good deals. The "good" part is subjective and in this case is dependent on the promise you see in MGI-114. Right now the company is keeping pretty tight lid on PII results. If your gut is telling you that the results will be less than compelling, then a "good deal" is one that is signed now and the money is in the bank. On the other hand, if you are inclined to believe that the revealed PI and PII efficacy cases are representative of what we will see when the complete PII trial data is presented, then a "good deal" is the one Blitzer is now working on and will be worth much more than the first scenario deal. <<With limited information on MGI 114 a lot of this is gut feel>>...<<The question will be whether MGI can increase survival>> Unfortunately gut is what most of us have to rely on at this point. I have found though that the deeper I look at this situation, the more my gut, and brain, tells me that MGI-114 is worth much more that the market is presently giving it credit for. We are ever so close to finding out what is real. Finally, I just want to say I'm not attached to your decision here but, rather, I've enjoyed the discussion. Good luck and now I'll resume the lurking posture. David

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