Stefan,
I would think the answer when to follow and when to be contrarian is in the method of reading one chooses. Mine is tape reading (it could be chart reading, technical analysis and indicators). When you study tape reading principles, you see that they deal with the question: what market force stays behind this particular buying/selling and how to react on this market force action. For instance, one of the principles says: hold through slow buying and sell on fast advance with rapidly increasing volume. It's based on assumption that smart money buying is as quiet as possible, big guys try to avoid the attention till the moment is right. When public comes, it buys everything in sight making price movement hysterical - and since "public is usually wrong", it's time to sell (being contrarian). Of course, it's all not that straightforward in real life, but this kind of principles creates very good foundation for more deep reading.
How to stop trying to predict... well, pain teaches, doesn't it? It was not fast nor simple process for me to make that general switch in thinking... I would assume, it's not easy for anyone since (IMHO) the way to think required for trading is not natural for human being. Thus it takes great deal of time and efforts to learn to think this way, and trader often "slips" in incorrect thinking again, and fights it again... easier and easier every time... but still...
What a trip, huh?? :)
Vadym |
