This thread is so interesting that I actually joined!
It is sometimes informative and always humorous.
I have been long for a loooooonnnngggg time, and have seen the tremendous fluctuations over the past couple of years. I keep hearing the old standard Newbridge gripes, "here we go again, another earnings warning!", but this time I feel the scenario will be quite different.
In the late 1950's, a group of designers and engineers at A.V.Rowe in Canada developed the AVRO ARROW. The technology was great, the program was cancelled, the prototypes and blueprints were destroyed, end of story......or was it?
Those same engineers and scientists re-surfaced in the USA and developed the F-4Phantom, Mercury Rocket, and Apollo!
Did these people get snapped up by NASA because of their work on the AVRO ARROW?
Did anyone really fear that cutting edge technology?
Or, was it cost effective for the American corporations to hire them en-masse for their technical acumen?
Fast forward to the turn of the century, November 1999.
A Canadian company with wonderful research and development seems mired in it's inability to deliver the goods and fully exploit the potential benefits of their various technologies by expanding the US Market.
A long awaited action plan calls for 10% job cuts, to 5,000 (I expect a one time charge in the current acc'tng period)
a return to the company's sphere of influence, concentrating on R&D of the core products,
outsourcing and partnering for the production of products,
and finally announcing that the company is for sale!
Simultaneously to all this action, a second Canadian company that is perceived as a leader in networking, posts record sales and earnings! They also indicate that approx. 1,000 non essential staff will be made redundant, while they expect to hire 5,000 high technology staff in the next year!
Do these hi-tech people grow on trees?
Is the country not at,or near, full employment?
Given the present economic environment and nationalistic pride in Canada with respect the the ongoing "Brain Drain",
(whether real or imagined) I cannot see the Government of the day standing by and watching Newbridge be broken up or sold to foreign interests when the country has so much invested in the subsidized training of many of the staff. One needs only to look at the recent negotiations in the Air Canada/Canadian Airlines nationalistic soap opera! Please remember that the Canadian Government does not need to report to anyone other than the voters, and they have a dismal track record where business acumen is required.
It makes sense for Nortel to acquire Newbridge. The business philosphies may be similar, and transition would be seamless, albeit Nortel's execution of their business model far exceeds that of Newbridge.
A Nortel deal would be immediately accretive, even at a significant premium. The synergies are too numerous to list in this forum. The cost of Nortel hiring, firing, training, relocating and engaging 5,000 new hi-tech employees would be prohibitive, and disruptive to not only Nortel, but every other hi-tech company.
A strategic alliance would not benefit Nortel because of the "MATTHEWS FACTOR", they would need to exhibit ultimate control establish industry dominance.
Oh, one last thought....do you think Nortel announced this initiative last month to develop a giga or terra switch?
NO, NO, NO,...They are planning for the future, not focusing on missed deadlines, empty product pipelines, bad management and missed earnings! I really think that we who follow NN should do the same thing, focus on the future instead of being pre-occupied with present failure.
I trust that those of you who have an ability to read between the lines find something positive in this post, and I also hope that the superficial ones fanning the flames of rumour and speculation simply click NEXT.
An objective participant,
Tambry |
