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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 670.92

+0.1%

Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: Les H who wrote (33949)	11/22/1999 6:27:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) of 99985

WHAT TO EXPECT NOW. ORD ORACLE. Timer Digest (203) 629-3503 has us ranked #1 in performance for the last 12 months in the November 1 issue. We will be out of town on Friday November 26, but we will update our "900" number at our 4:05 eastern time frame for signals regarding the mutual funds and the OEX options if any. Our indicators say the market is near or at a top now. The "5 day ARMS" is still below "4.00" closing today at 3.47. Today marks the 8th day in a row that the "5 day ARMS" has stayed below "4.00". The longer this indicator stays near "4.00" and below the more severe decline is expected. We talked about in the past about the McClellan Oscillator trending down with the market trending up and how that is a negative divergence. Today the McClellan Oscillator past through the "0" line closing at minus 20, creating a sell signal in that indicator. Friday the VIX (Volatility Index) hit a low of 19.43. Readings below 20.00 appear near tops. Seasonality is not especially bullish or bearish right now but does turn bullish in December. The downtick readings did hit a minus 988 today near the low and did prompt a rally towards the end of the day and closed at a minus 418, which is also a positive sign for short term. In candlestick charting on the December S&P's a bearish "Doji" appeared. The market appears not to be ready to go down yet because of the bullish down ticks intraday and closing readings. Market may hold up a little longer. The break to the downside may come Friday.

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