13 13/16. Not so bad. 482K on 782 trades. ~20% Institutional so most of the morning selling was retail profitaking. Some support at the 13 5/8 level and triggered some small institutional buying. When a stock like NSIL runs up 70% in a month and starts to decline, the retail profitakers start to bail. They want some profits. Being long NSIL, you have to accept the rise with the decline. Focus on this stat and burn it into your ramm.
Earnings Per Share
Last Quarter 0.07
Surprise 0.05
Percent 250.00%
The warning in the earnings is no different tham Microsoft always downplaying the value of its stock. This company is letting the earning speak for themselves. They are trying to control a stock that could have fed into a frenzy.
Sometimes the public is hit with overwelming news and fails to see it. Wait until magazines review those stocks with the largest earning surprises. NSIL will get another surge then.
Good RB post on NSIL: "It has been a long while since I saw an IPO of a company with such a blue sky ahead of them. NSIL has a lock on the high volume sales with imaging, patents applied for the key speed up software to extend the chip into real time arenas, cheap manufacturing and packaging, design teams lined up at the door, etc. Some thought ELON had the edge, but I just don't see it. The supply of cheap ethernet products is so pervasive that proprietary ELON systems are going to remain a niche. The real volume is going to go to NSIL. Will MOT or Intel try to jump in? I doubt it, since they don't have that volume imaging market. That market is the key to springboarding the expansion. Then there is the patent issue. NSIL holds the aces. BUT, Intel might want to supply the chips, and why not, a second source is always good. So what do I think the future is? NSIL should see themselves as a 400M company in a couple of years, with bottom line profits of 50 to 100M. Stock price? Somewheres north of $100 a share! Sell now if you want, but just remember, your kids could have gone to Ivy league school for what you gave up."
Another RB poster found this from CIBC. 11/19/99 CIBC/Oppenheimer reiterates buy, reports blowout quarter, raised FY 00 estimates from 0.07 to 0.10, FY 01 estimates 0.28, raised target from $17 to $22.
I remember doing feeble DD in 1994. I found Xylinx, American Power Conversion, Cheyenne Software, and ECI Telecom. I passed on Xylinx because of the lack of press information. Maybe they just never hyped the company with constant PR's. Just another semiconductor stock in a field of many. I bought APCC because of the extensive media coverage and sold 3 years later for a small profit. I watch Xylinx split several times. Is NSIL another early Xylinx? I see small, profitable company in a soon to be hot niche area. In August, this would have skyrocketed. Now fast money chasing QCOM's next heir apparent whatever that may be. I speak to several investors and 30% annual return isn't good enough anymore. NASDAQ is the new benchmark, not the S&P 500. Greedy and irrationale.
NSIL will be a $27 stock next year at this time. The earning's growth rate and revenues make this a marketcap stock of at least 400M.
INTC has a price/sales of 9.65 per MG, NSIL is a low 6.85.
Before earnings came out the book value was (0.15)MRQ. When Yahoo and MG get this data updated to reflect this last quarter, then NSIL will go up. This is the technology lag factor. Data looks right unless you have watched from the start and realise that it old. That's why stock screeners are garbage for the most part. When institutions see the change, they will start buying. By then, NSIL will have inched up to $15.
The real question to NSIL investors is can you wait and hold through the profit taking? Can you accept that this stock may flatline with no news for the next month? I can, time is on my side. Earnings drive the market per Peter Lynch. NSIL is only in first gear. If you tried to time my ACVC, CNSW, and MLTX runs, you would have sold too sold or bought too high. Today's price is opportunity to buy.
Profitakers can run this down to $12, but I doubt it. Too much profit in that earning report. When I worked for a brokerage house in 1983, stocks that had "blowout" earnings were easiest to sell. "Buy this quality company on dip, before you miss the next run." CIBC and PiperJ clients will hop all over it. I can hear the phones ringing now for the analyst's reports.
Jack
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