Peter;
In response to your note and your questions:
I have not been to China, nor do I plan to, until the Communist regime is exorcised. (I'll go when the ROC flag flies over all of China :-)
We are lucky enough to live in a country where students, regardless of university, political stance, area of study, etc. are free to speak.....Can students in China say the same. As a student, were you not, and are you not disgusted at how the Communist forces ran over their own sons, daughters, brothers, sisters and friends in Tiennamen?
As for the economic situation in China, and your claim that:
to paint one billion people as "poor" is a show of how ignorant many Westerners can be.
China is, as measured by per capita GDP, POOR. According to the data I was using when I made my remarks, per capita GDP in China (1998 numbers) is a PALTRY $3,600
Certainly, some in China, cronies of the Communists among them, are rich, but with Per Capita GDP so low, a great majority have to, using basic math, be POOR. Looking at it from a more advanced angle, one could argue that a simple arithmetic mean OVERSTATES the wealth of the average Chinese citizen. But, for the sake of argument, I will grant you the $3600 figure.
I agree China is physically a big place. I agree China has ALOT of people....but China's Per Capita GDP (a well regarded and well used stat for measuring wealth of a nation) is MINISCULE. This is not being Ignorant, this is being ACCURATE and REALISTIC.
The fact that China is a poor country in drag is why I take the contrarian view about economic opportunities IN China. (I am also very bearish on economic opportunities in the subcontinent as well, but that is another issue). I have a bearish view on MYWB for different reasons, which you are welcome to read, just do a search on the keywords "the real ASMC" (MYWB is a OTCBB Reverse Merger POS, the old ticker was ASMC). ASMC, btw, had tried in its past to market videos in Asia, and gave that up too.
Further, to tackle the issue of the trade agreement. It will certainly have an effect on textiles, and toys, and other labor intensive goods.
However, how can it have any effect on the information industry, IMO, in a country where the flow of ideas is INTENTIONALLY stifled. Remember the "Cultural Revolution"? Who were the victims? Remember the Great Leap Forward" (ha, what a misnomer)? Who were the victims? Red China's Government has survived by exterminating, jailing, ridiculing, and harrassing the intelligentsia, the very folks who would be the early adopters of internet technology.
More importantly, the US Senate has not ratified this agreement yet, nor has China reached agreement with the EU.
BTW, I cannot remember the name of it right now, but I did read a great interview with a writer who argues that China is not even a military power, let alone a economic one, and he had some very interesting things to say on those subjects, basically coming to the conclusion that China's perceived economic and military might is just a "Potemkin Village". I have heard the same thing from friends in HK, both native and ex-pat.
Buyer Beware! |
