Robert, I think that the concerns raised by Brian are valid and that your post, while it would be welcomed by all longs, may miss a couple of points implicit in Brian's:
1-further mass adoption of GSM in China to the exlusion of, or in light of minimal, adoption of CDMA would put a significant damper on the "worldwide CDMA adoption story", not to mention dampen revenue and earnings growth rates and potential over the near-term, intermediate term and (see item 3, below) possibly the long, long term. This "psychological" dent in the Q story, even if growth rates in revenues and earnings stay on track (and the last three quarters sequentially have been quite mild once you strip out the pro-forma lumpiness) would, imho, have a significant impact on ability of share price to hold gains/make future gains.
2-Since early this year, a potential "secular" dip in Q's growth rates has been possible between IS95 adoption/2.5G and 3G adoption: can CDMA adoption rates be sustained at high enough rates 2000-2002 to offset likely loss of Q ASIC share (handset now not an issue).
3-3G: Q may have 100% of the 3G market in 10 years, but: will a significant percentage of China's GSM 2.5G subscribers feel the need to go 3G, i.e., how big will that market be? Ten years is a long, long time a) not to be participating in the largest new potential wireless market in the world and in the absolute largest within a year or two; b) to assume no technological developments disrupt Q's apparently powerful position in this space.
Having offered these thoughts up, the issue of technology transfer is extremely difficult for Q--it is its lifeblood--and contrasted with the open IPR platform offered by GSM, narrows Q's negotiating leverage with MII, given China's longstanding requirement to have at least some degree of control over the technology it permits to be deployed into the PRC.
Steve |
