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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (10051)11/23/1999 11:18:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (5) of 15132
 
Wally: Market history on tightening (very few in December) and the Y2K hoopla will keep the Fed. on the sidelines UNLESS the economic numbers truly show an overheated economy IMO.

The market can certainly discount a hike between now and February that should give us a correction and/or the Fed. may change the bias on December if the numbers are too strong.

I believe the Fed. is targeting unsustainable growth in excess of 3.5% and the tightening labor market along with the leading indicators on inflation. All of this is bullish long term if Greenie does not go too far but should give us a correction. I believe Greenspan looks at the stock market in the terms of unsustainable growth economically.

Re: "However, with apparent continued concern in the bond
market on inflation, oil prices setting new highs every week, and the NAZ going ballistic. I'm starting to have second thoughts."

Oil price hikes will serve to slow the economy down and may be Greenie's best friend at the moment. Bond market wants a slowdown to get happy. Overall market is expensive but not much different than it was in July. NAZ is in a world of its own but is only part of the market. Today's correction in the NAZ is consistent with corrections in the past year which occur on the Monday or Tuesday following options expiration after a good run. I would like to see it get hammered but I think we will need the fear of a rate hike or some Y2K earnings fears for that to happen.
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