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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company

QCOM 166.81

-4.1%

Nov 17 3:59 PM EST

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To: LBstocks who wrote (3485)	11/23/1999 11:22:00 AM
From: idler	Read Replies (3) of 13582

I cannot reconcile the unbounded optimism of the Alex Cena report with the dour pessimism of the H&Q report. Although H&Q may well have reasons to be bearish, I believe they were correct in their July report that ASP's of handsets were going down and therefore that division would be much less profitable -- which, of course, led to Q's decision to sell that division. So I don't think you can totally disregard what H&Q says. My take is that H&Q is hopefully extremely myopic in not properly factoring in worldwide growth of the CDMA markets or any revenues from HDR (which are still yet to be realized). On the other hand, while I hope Cena's long term outlook is correct (and it certainly appears to be as of now), I would love to see some hard numeric analysis of how that growth would translate into higher numbers than H&Q projects, even if H&Q is correct about declining ASPs because of increased competition. I note that H&Q's estimate for fiscal year 2000 net earnings is over $1 less than Cena's estimate.

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