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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders
LRCX 155.15+2.1%Nov 26 3:59 PM EST
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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (3667)11/23/1999 12:50:00 PM
From: David Pletcher  Read Replies (3) of 5867
 
> The rational people on WS are at it again

You probably meant this facetiously, but do you really believe that LRCX at 95 was rational? Lam was the worst performing stock I ever owned. Lam is an also-ran in a winner-take-all business. Lam was at 12 within the last year. Now it's a bargain near 100? Yeah, they earned a few pennies, big deal. It's not like they won't start bleeding money again within a few quarters or a few years.

I will presumptively agree with you on this point: any analyst who was panning LRCX at 12 then calling it a bargain at 95 within a year is out of his fleepin mind. Or, more likely, he is practicing the age-old art of pump and dump. I can't believe people keep falling for this same old cycle, over and over. I got taken once or twice but I learned my lesson! Stocks like LRCX and LSI fluctuate wildly in value over the course of these somewhat-aperiodic cycles. Shrewd operators predict doom and gloom while they snap up piles of shares at a steep discount to a reasonable valuation. When they are sated, they talk the issue up into the stratosphere while they quietly sell for 5x what they paid, usually within a year.

So, what do you think Lam is worth, assuming that the semiconductor industry business cycle has not been forever repealed? I'm certainly not buying at these prices. I'll just wait until the next time it's in the low teens.
-- David Pletcher
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