Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Gary Burton who wrote (55290)	11/23/1999 1:04:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) of 95453

GaryB ? sometimes it is not that complex; re: over-analyzing... Merrill I believe; had a very straight forward take on the irrationality of the E&P selloff of late; given the valuations here with $25ish crude oil & compared to the higher valuations here months ago with $18-$20ish crude, let alone last fall with $12 crude. They said they were receiving comments from institutional clients who were selling E&P's at a profit - after having loaded this spring; and were using the selling of E&P's as "currency" - to raise either cash for Y2K redemption possibilities, or to rotate into techland for the momenteum play... etc. I don't think the sellers know more, or less than the buyers; I do think that they are often goverened by different catalyts than they buyers are. For instance; if Fidelity's computer model suggests that strong cash redemptions will occur at the last minute - pre Y2K; then perhaps funds are trimming their largest positions, or taking profits in some leaders as well. Untill this recent tech rally - and the Oilpatch selloff; the Oilpatch was basically one of, it not the strongest sector YTD of late... There were and still are simply lots of profits to cash in here. The only negative fundamental is the soft natural gas prices which have pulled back too far, too soon imho. That the balanced producers have pulled back in lock step with some natural gas pureplays; creates a buying opp imho. Only time will tell. OEI has traded in rolling waves; I would certainly expect that we will see a spike over $9 and a run on the resistance at $11 before Xmas... no doubts at all in my mind. This is a $15 stock - on a "when", not an "if" basis... we only need $18+ crude sustained and $2.10ish nat gas acutally. PS - the "gloom & doom" barometer is now in the buy zone here... that's a good thing actually. Still sitting at $7 7/16ths and $7. Got my fill at $7 15/16ths; curious as to what the API's bring tonight; I have to leave before the end of todays trading; relying on stop & limit orders thru days end... good luck; I also bought some NBL here, tics away on PXD & UPR fwiw. There are not ANY service , or driller stocks in my buy zone yet either fwiw.

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