Doug,Re: my estimate. I think we all need to be clear on
this:
At this point the only person who has
the best idea of
how this is going to end is TM.
and he ain't talking.
The rest of the world is just guessing.
This is just one big giant guess for everybody.
From NN company buyers ( they don't know
what their competitors are going to do ),
to NN stockbuyers, individuals and Institutions.
Everybody is guessing.
Sort of like sofa kingdom:He sits on his sofa and guesses.
He is fairly honest and calls himself the weatherman.
i completely agree: we are guessing tomorrow's weather.Can it be done?
To some degree. If you are a good weatherman.
Like all of us buying NN stock. Have we learned enough
about NN and networking in the last 5-8 years ( gone to Weatherman University )
to be able to make some predictions?
Some, many? of us seem to think so.
So let us put our finger to the wind and see which way it is
blowing and go from there.
So having qualified myself and clearly stated that I do not
want to be held responsible
for anybody buying NN and loosing their shirt on it,
( simple, don't buy it ), I will say this:
I am banking on the fact that
*interest to buy NN has been there for a long time (at least
since 97
when LU to my knowledge offered $70 and TM refused ).
*the folks that are interested in NN already know what NN
does/sells.
*I am banking that if indeed NN's technology is so hot
(since in John Chambers' immortal words, networking will be
IP+ATM based ),
then there will be hot bidding for NN.
*ERICY's denials underwhelm me: these guys need an ATM or they wouldn't
have made an offer for NN in the past.There is no way they
are going to build an
ATM faster than whoever buys NN deploys NN's ATM. So if they
are smart they
will do what CSCO did: Buy the technology.
*The most important item though, is that these 5 guys know
that if,perhaps,
it is true that if NN's ATM technology stays with NN nobody
will get hurt in the long term.
But they can't say that if the other guy, i.e.
Big-Pockets buys NN: then we could
be facing some very serious competitive threats that few may be willing to disregard .
So ultimately I think there will be shouting and screaming
and calling numbers just like in
the pits of the NYSE or at Sotheby's for NN.
For how long is your question?
My answer: not very long.
Have you ever attended an auction?
It is over in minutes,
All IMHO
TA
we are going
TA@blowinginthewind.com
Message #14982 from Doug at Nov 23 1999 12:44PM
Tunica: What is your estimate by which this will come to a finale.?
I certainly would like this to end sooner than later.! |
