kash:
RMBS maybe best performing stock of 2003 when 1GB DRAM are available.
ebns.com
SIA roadmap indicates slowing DRAM density growth, steady mfg. advances
By Jack Robertson
Electronic Buyers' News
(11/23/99, 04:39:16 PM EDT)
The evolution of DRAM densities is slowing, even as advances in manufacturing processes for memory and microprocessors continue, according to a report released this week by the Semiconductor Industry Association.
The SIA's newly issued 1999 International Semiconductor Technology Roadmap represents a sharp reversal from last year's predictions, which indicated that the industry would be commercializing 1-Gbit DRAM in 2002, followed by 4-Gbit devices in 2005.
According to its latest findings, however, the SIA said 1-Gbit DRAM will not be a factor until 2003, while an interim 2-Gbit density will enter the market in 2005. Similarly, 16-Gbit chips, originally slated for 2008 production, will now be pushed out until 2011.
The stretchout has virtually no relation to manufacturing issues, since the 1999 roadmap also calls for DRAM design rules to continue on the same schedule forecast a year ago. DRAM linewidths are expected to migrate to a 0.18-micron feature size this year, moving to 0.13 microns in 2002, and to 0.l microns in 2005, before reaching a 0.07-micron geometry in 2008 and 0.05 microns in 2011.
Microprocessor manufacturing advances are setting an even more torrid pace, reaching a 0.1-micron feature size in 2001, and moving to 0.07- and 0.045-micron nodes in 2004 and 2008, respectively. By 2014 MPUs are expected to be using a 0.002 micron process geometery, which Paolo Gargini, an Intel Corp. fellow and technology strategist, said is the lower limit of planar-CMOS technology.
The roadmap confirmed earlier industry estimates that predicted die shrinks will allow DRAM and MPUs to maintain an 800-sq.-mm footprint for the next 14 years. Previous roadmpas had projected that an ever-expanding menu of functions and an increase in on-chip transistor density would require larger die with each new product generation. However, Gargini said fast pace of die shrinks within the industry will now allow increasing complex circuits to retain their 800-sq.-mm die area.
New to the SIA's 1999 roadmap is the division of microprocessors into lower-cost, high-volume, and high-performance, low-volume categories.
The high volume MPU segment will see transistor density nearly doubling every two years, from 6.6 million per-sq.-cm this year to 13 million per-sq.-cm in 2001, and 44 million in 2005. The trend continues into 2014, when MPU densities are projetced to reach 684 million transistors per-sq.-cm.
High-performance microprocessors are expected to set a similar blitzing pace, moving from 24 million transistors per-sq.-cm this year and growing at roughly four times the density of low-price MPUs. In 2014, high-performance processors will boast 2.1 billion transistors-per-sq.-cm, according to the SIA.
Another first for the roadmap was the fact that ASICs were added as a separate category, and are expected to use 0.07-micron linewidths in 2004, and a 0.045-micron feature size in 2008. The first breakout of ASICs predicts usable transistors will rise from 20 million per-sq.-cm this year to 328 million per-sq.-cm by 2008, before increasing sharply to 2 billion transistors per-sq.-cm by 2014.
The 1999 roadmap estimated that the cost/performance ratio for memory and various logic chips would continue on nearly the same 25% annual curve as has been recorded during the last 20 years. This is expected to result in DRAM production-cost-per-bit of 15 microcents-per-transistor in 1999, dropping to 7.8 microcents in 2001, and to 1.9 microcents in 2005.
The volume MPU sector, which now stands at 1,050 microcents-per-transistor, is predicted to drop to 525 microcents in 2001, and to 131 microcents in 2005. Meanwhile, manufacturing costs within the high-performance MPU segment, where many more transistors are fitted onto each die, will decline from 245 microcents-per-transistor in 1999, to 123 microcents in 2001, and to 131 microcents in 2005.
|
