Jeff .. what "calm" methods of preparation have you taken? I'm curious because I'm starting to consider a few myself.
I don't want to juggle my portfolio around because I'm focusing on long-term gains and just expect to ignore whatever volatility (however tempting ;)) may occur in the coming weeks.
A tangent: I consider myself a pretty smart guy, and you know what? I have -NO- idea what's going to happen. Newsflash: no one has a clue. You have to know too much about too many things to predict what will happen, so it's beyond anyone's capacity. Maybe someone from Chevron can shed some kind of light on what may happen in their particular piece of the oil industry .. but global economies and interactions and effects on local economies and institutions are just waaaaay too complicated to predict. Since it's a complete unknown, one possibility seems equally likely as another. We could enter an economic holocaust due to Y2K failure or a period of outrageous exuberance due to Y2K success. A probabilistic analysis would say the expected outcome is the very middle. Nothing at all.
Stocks my rocket up just as easily as they may plummet down - I can think of perfectly reasonable, very convincing explanations for either to happen. So what should I do? Why not prepare a bit, just in case something really bad happens. If something really good happens, no sweat.
Anyone who is correct on 1/1/2000 is lucky - nothing more. I don't want to gamble with my money so I'm leaving it where it is. Paradoxically, I'm leaving it on the betting table. ;)
Unless Y2K decimates financial markets then we should have nothing to worry about LONG-TERM, which is what I care about in my portfolio. And even if I thought it could, what should I do? Sell? What if the market is way oversold now because of fear? I'd take a hit from taxes AND I'd miss out on serious gains in the new year, buying back far higher than I sold. No thanks, that's an opportunity cost I don't want to pay.
But as for other preparations .. I have been considering withdrawing a reasonable sum of cash from my checking account just in case .. and stocking up on some canned and frozen food as well as batteries, flashlights, candles, etc. Any other recommendations? I think it's worth shelling out 50 bucks or so to feel and be more secure.
-G |
