Sorry it took so long to get this up, I've been trying to get on with MSN for 2 hours, and AOL wouldn't let me cut & paste.....
First a quick point.....No matter what our differences have been in the past, I really hope that everyone is making, and makes money on OO tommorow, that's what it is all about.
What I am about to do is one of the most dangerours things you can do----Paint a possible scenario.
This is because nobody can say what a stock is going to to. That is why I use TA, to take all the subjectivity out of trading. Having said that, this is one of those times when both TA and FA are equally useless. In fact, this might be one of the few times that buy-and-hold beats trading. But since there is nothing I can do until tommorow, what the hell, let's paint. For the record, I am long OO @ 9.00 and am holding May 10 calls.
EARNINGS POSSIBILITES
1. Come in low
2. Come in on target
3. Come in above
Number one and two above are not going to happen, and here's why. Since 1-24-97 we have not had two consecutive days with volume over it's 180 Moving Average, and the majority of the days have been way below. Now, all of a sudden, you have five days in a row over the 180 MA, on 2 and 3 times daily volume, along with consecutive price increases. SOMEBODY KNOWS SOMETHING. This is not a coattail on RAYS, because RAYS went up one day, and then nothing. But, RAYS has an idea of what there numbers are, and that includes a lot of Oakley glasses, and someone knows that. So I say we are definitely coming in higher.
THE BIG QUESTION
So, we come in higher, now what. That is the BIG question. It all depends on who has been doing the buying. If they are short term players and are happy with the 33% run from 9.00 to 12.00, they may bail out. If they are long term players, I think we will open gap up, possibly to where we gapped down around 13.375. If that happens, Oakley is going to do very well in the next few months.
But, if we come in under or flat, or the stock does not move up on good announcements, get ready to buy-and-hold for a while more, because I think we could go down to 9.00 in one day. I don't think that that will happen, but you never know.
The technicals on Oakley began to look better a few weeks ago, and they are on fire right now, short term wise. They are just on the brink of turning up intermediate wise (some already have), and that is what tomorrow will determine. I still say if we go up to 12.50 in the morning, but don't gap up or momentum stops, buy those April 12.50 Puts if they are cheap, to cover your ass for a breakdown in the afternoon or on Friday.
Isn't this fun. I think we will all make some money tommorow. They are annoucing before the market opens. Last time, the numbers were on the wire by 7:30 EST. That would be 4:30 for us out on the West Coast. Anyone going to be up then? Definitely be at you computer when the bell opens and keep those calls in mind as insurance like Sam Nizam did.
Good luck to everyone!
BCL |
