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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (29817)11/24/1999 10:35:00 AM
From: Lee  Read Replies (1) of 50167
 
Hi Ike,..Re:.Signs of trouble for the bonds and eventually market!

Don't you think the long bond is range bound in the 6 - 6.5% range until and unless CPI comes in solidly above 3% and productivity growth slows in tandem? We are currently just back to pre-Q3 '98 on long rates and it didn't seem to hurt GDP growth in '98. Also, in '98 I think wages were rising faster than they are currently.


    1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994  1995 1996 1997 1998  

GDP  3.5  4.2  3.5  1.7  0.2  3.3  2.4  4.0  2.7  3.7  4.5  4.3

bea.doc.gov

stls.frb.org

Eventually, the core prices that show in the PPI currently will show up in the CPI but by then maybe the consumer will have cooled off somewhat. I don't know how but some equilibrium will surface.<g>

In the meantime, will be prudent and look at some QQQ puts to hedge this happiness.<g>

Best,

Lee
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