Elliott Wave Analysis -- Here's a summary of Robert Prechter's current wave count:
According to Precter, the Dow topped on August 24, 1999. That was the top of Wave V. The period from August 24 to October 18 was minor Wave 1 down. It consisted of minor waves i, ii, iii, iv and v. Since, October 18, the Dow has been in a minor Wave 2 rally consisting of an a, b, c zigzag pattern.
I believe that Precter is calling November 22 the top of the Wave 2 rally and the beginning of minor Wave 3 down. I'm not sure because he hedges by saying that if the Dow makes new highs "it will only be part of a top-building tapestry, not the launch of a major upleg."
Precter also notes that minor Wave 1 down lasted 55 days or 8 weeks and that the minor Wave 2 rally lasted 35 days or 5 weeks. Minor Wave 2 lasted 0.618 (a Fibonacci number) as long as minor Wave 1, "a time relationship that is compatible with expectations for a downturn."
Here's a chart of Precter's wave count:
home.swbell.net
Precter's web site is at: elliottwave.com
As a side note, last year, on the Monday following Thanksgiving, the DJIA began a 7% correction that continued until mid-December.
*****
I don't know anything about Elliott Waves. I'm just posting this for information purposes. |
