>>This is exactly the logic employed by the herd of investors that ran up NSCP on its opening day.
Netscape's run-up on day one was fueled exclusively by individual investors. True believers who didn't have investment committees and valuation guidelines to answer to. They knew they were buying a piece of the future. Herd is not an appropriate word for the IPO, IMO. Perhaps the run in late November qualifies for that label.
>>It may be true that one day NSCP will be where MSFT is today, but why do people act as if it is a foregone conclusion?
Chip, speaking for myself as a Netscape shareholder since last summer, I can tell you that I'm assuming nothing about Netscape's future. I watch developments in this market daily. From what officers of the company have told me directly, they're not making assumptions either.
>>It took MSFT 20 years to get where it is today with many decisions and "lucky breaks" along the way that could have just as easily sent the company foundering.
The same is true for both Netscape and Microsoft in the future. Microsoft did practice some pricing tactics with MS-DOS and Windows years ago that they have since been forced to abandon. IBM's adoption of MS-DOS as the operating system on the first open PC was obviously key. Now Microsoft's leverage lies in Windows 95 and NT, two formitable franchises. Nevertheless, it's clear to me that Microsoft's posture indicates that the biggest software company on earth is really worried.
I think your investment in Microsoft is sound. They have tremendous growth ahead of them. My belief, however, is that Netscape is making the rules right now, and taking computing in a direction of their own.
It may well turn out that there will be two big winners in this race.
What I find interesting is that most arguments in Microsoft's favor are based on the company's past victories against companies who were slow to recognize Windows. This time Microsoft is behind the curve, and they're acting defensively.
>>Netscape has a good product. But it is just one product (basically). MSFT has a LOT of products. MSFT also has a LOT of bench strength. If you want to do cool things in software today, where do you want to be? (Read the current issue of Wired describing the attraction that MSFT had for several pioneers/leaders in the 3D graphics software industry.) And finally, as large as it already was, MSFT has just doubled its R&D budget.
Netscape has a broad portfolio of products, many of which Microsoft doesn't yet compete against.
>>Good luck to NSCP investors. I'll put my $ on MSFT.
It's ironic, but Microsoft's war on Netscape is having the unintended effect of giving Netscape priceless continuous visibility. Comparisons are constantly being made between the two companies' products and strategies. This enforces Netscapes considerable mindshare. Netscape's telephone calls get answered. |
