Bill Wexler's Dog Pound Message Board

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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound

REFR 1.560

-2.5%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Graeme Smith who wrote (5094)	11/25/1999 12:42:00 AM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (1) of 10293

Graeme, Thanks, it's always nice to hear grass roots stories about Zicam. Some pharmacists have heard about it and others haven't. The product is still relatively new and it takes time to get the word out to so many people. I went to a Rite Aid in New Jersey while on business a few weeks ago and asked the pharmacist if he had heard about Zicam. This was before the USA Today article was out. He said no but it didn't concern me because the reaction of one pharmacist can't be generalized to the entire country and it takes time to get the word out. The only generalization that one can use to gauge how well Zicam is selling is sales data from Gum Tech. Based on this measure, I would say that it is being well received by consumers. Retailers would not have ordered as much as they did in the days after the USA Today article came out unless there was demand and sell through to consumers. Walgreens, for example, didn't have Zicam in stock on the day that the USA Today article was published. The company quickly ordered it for all of their stores because so many consumers went into their stores and asked for it. One Walgreens reportedly had a sign in their window that said "We have Zicam" and some Costco stores placed it near their checkout aisles. While these reports and the company's sales data are very encouraging, several quarters of sales data and year to year comparisons are needed before one can fairly predict the odds of its long term success. I think that this is a fair characterization of where Gum Tech is with Zicam. Saying that they will have zero retail sales isn't fair and saying that the company lied in a public press release about their sales is complete hogwash. The stock will discount sales along the way, and if Zicam does well over the next year, those who shorted the stock between 12 and 18 will be well under water if they hold their position that long. In my judgement, anything better than $40 million in sales the first year would be very good and would fundamentally support a much higher stock price than the current $15. This is especially true when you consider that nicotine gum should be producing revenue by the third quarter of 2000. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone here. Best regards, Dan

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