Sam,
I am usually a quiet observer here, but you continually make predictions regarding an ATHM/AOL deal, and say how much ATHM would run up if such a deal were to happen. Why?
Well, I'm not Sam, but I do believe there would be long-lasting benefits if a deal were to take place between the leading Internet media company (AOL) and the leading broadband distribution company (ATHM).
I sense that you're dismissing AOL's "eyeballs," but keep in mind that eyeballs are the catalysts for the endless multi-million dollar deals with content providers and advertisers that AOL announces most every day. In the last 10 days alone, AOL has announced an online bill-paying deal with Intuit, a gaming deal with Electronic Arts, a Latin America initiative, a China initiative, a partnership with Gateway, a content deal with CultureFinder, numerous shopping malls, and was listed higher than the major television networks in brand recognition in an important study. Any single one of these deals would make the quarter for most companies. This is what AOL did in the last 10 days.
Looked at a bit more objectively, AOL is not just a bunch of eyeballs, it is a vertically integrated sales and marketing machine that can deliver 19 million paying customers in one place to advertisers, and transact a deal on the spot. (You mention Real Network's larger customer base, but despite its ambitions, RNWK's product is a utility, not a marketing machine. People don't go to the Real Network site to view editorial and commercial content; they use RNWK's neat streaming a/v browser. Apples and oranges.)
To paraphrase a regular on the AOL board, it is true that AOL lacks a broadband "strategy," but it is just as true that ATHM lacks an e-commerce and advertising strategy. (And, please, spare me talk about Excite.) AOL and ATHM are stronger together than they are separately. A combined company will deliver infinitely better shareholder value than two separate companies. And *that* is the only name of the game, not the fierce and emotional loyalties that many shareholders feel toward one company or the other.
A happy and peaceful Thanksgiving to all,
Islander99
(Position disclosures: Long AOL, recently sold half of ATHM stake on the runup, but keeping the other half just in case! <g>) |
