Hi Islander99- It's the pits to wake up at 2:30 A.M. and not be able to go back to sleep! Yuk!
You make some good points concerning the strength of AOL. I, too, have noticed AND been envious of the deals they have made over the last couple of weeks. Instead of AOL paying to make things happen, others are coming to them with a cash partnership. Truly amazing! They are "again" the darling on Wall Street.
Do you remember when AOL slid to the 70s from a high of 175? They were no longer the darling. Instead of hearing AOL being mention every 15 min. on CNBC, I could go half a day without seeing or hearing coverage. As the Net stocks rallied, AOL joined the pack. Now, they are a gem stock again.
What happens when the increase in subscriber numbers begins to slow? Worse yet, what will happen if they have a quarter of losing subscribers? Investors will depart that stock like rats on a sinking ship.
I heard an analyst say yesterday that AOL is a great investment now that they have a broadband strategy. WHAT broadband strategy?!!! I live in an area of 500,000 people. If AOL had a strategy, I would think they would tap into this market. I am not presently convinced that DSL is the answer to a "true" broadband play.
As the word of cable broadband spreads, AOL is going to lose subscribers. You heard one poster say his was another AOL account to bite the dust. Mine was dumped last July. I read one stat where 65% of new ATHM subscribers cancelled an AOL account. I believe that was mentioned by T.J. this past summer. Won't that have an affect on their numbers? If not presently, eventually? As ATHM moves to 2 million, 3 million, 4 million, ...10 million? I predict cable broadband growth (don't forget the quiet and increasing Road Runner) will take a bite out of that remarkable AOL growth. While content is important, SPEED will become the winner!
I watched Power Lunch yesterday and heard a magazine editor speak of the incredible developments of online, interactive games. Games you and your relatives across the globe can play together online. When asked how broadband figures into this, the gentleman said broadband was truly the key to making it happen. You need that bandwidth! With dialup, only frustration will come, and the door will be probably be closed to many of the online activities. Games is just one area!
AOL is yet to make a deal that really counts. A broadband deal involving CABLE. They need ATHM more than ATHM needs them. I won't think otherwise until AOL shows me a quarter whereby their subscriber percentage increase is greater than ATHMs. Didn't ATHM grow 35% last quarter compared to second quarter? Were AOL's numbers that impressive?
I credit you and other AOL Longs who have stayed with the stock through thick and thin. I just have serious concerns for its future, where to me ATHM looks very promising.
You have a nice Thanksgiving, too! I baked five pies yesterday from scratch! (blackberry, two pumpkin, custard, and apple). I am a 90s kind of guy!:0)
Take care,
Ed |
