An amateurs analysis of "OSPREY ENERGY LIMITED"
In reviewing the latest news release of Osprey I felt it appropriate to do an analysis albeit amateur on the company as of the date of the release for my own purposes.I felt it appropriate to share it here.
Prior to the Alberta Project Osprey had royaltie and interests that equated to the equivalent of 40 BOEPD equivalent.In disacussions with Mr Malone I was advise dthat it was their hopes that the wells being drilled in phase one in Alberta would produce 200 BOPD per well.That would be successful.Anything over that would be welcomed but that was the figure discussed.In the second paragraph I note that it says the first two wells have been drilled successfully and I can only assume that means a minimum of 200BOPD from each well as projected.
Osprey has a 5% working interest in these 5 wells in phase one of this program being drilled by two intermedite companies.Assuming the company equates success with hitting their targets or exceeding them I will assume they have acheived 200BOPD as a minimum of 200BOPD for each of the 2 wells drilled thus far.(there are three more wells to be drilled before December 31).
Based on a guestimate of 400BOPD with a 5% interest that would equate to 20BOPD to Osprey thus far.
The last paragraph is the part that interests me the most though as Osprey's interests are greater here as Osprey has a 15% interest with the Right of First Refusal on an additional 30% in these feilds according to the news release previous.
"The second well in the Livingston field was recently brought on stream and tested at over 800 barrels of oil per day. It is currently choked back to 100 bopd with the first well choked back to 200 bopd.Once the formation zones are clean up. each well will be produced at 300 bopd."
Based on the current flowage before the clean up I will use the 300 BOPD for both as opposed to the 300 each after the formation cleans up.Applying 15% to the 300 equates to 45 bopd as Ospreys share with the possibility of moving up to 15% of 600 when the other wells are cleaned up or 90 bopd.I will use 45 bopd at this point.
So here is the O/S shares at 3,575,000.
Fully diluted with PP shares 5,575,000 of which 2,000,000 have a one year hold due to no Annual Information form being filed are restricted from trading for one year from the closing of the Private Placement.There are no outstanding options or warrants at this point.
Historical BOPD prior to Alberta or Livingston = 40BOPD
Alberta wells 2X 200 bopd X 5%.................= 20BOPD
Livingston wells 100+300=400bopd X 15%.........= 60BOPD
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Ospreys current flowage ................= 120BOPD
With oil at 27.00US per barrell I will go conservative and use 20.00US per BO.
120 BOPD X 365 days = 43,800 Barrels per year.
43,800 BOE per year times 20.00US= 876,000 us X 147% = 1,287,720 Can/year
1,287,720 div by 3,575,000 shares = .36/share revenue
1,287,720 div by 5,575,000 shares fully diluted = .23/share revenue which is fine with me and that will improve as shown above.This stock is very under valued and can only get better with time.
THE OSPREY |
