edamo,
I don't agree with the argument
"a business that can't fill it's demands is sure to fail...."
A business that can not meet demand may not reach it's full potential instantaneously, but it is always growing. A good analogy is a "hot" car. People will order it knowing that they have to wait for it, but they won't wait indefinitely.
Everything you have said makes a lot of sense, but the fact is that "getting on-line" with a cable modem is much more complex than the 56K dial-up. That's the point missing from you arguments. It's not a matter of plugging the cable from your computer into a "splitter". Self install is on it's way, but it's going to take time. Sure, the cable modem in the box helps, right now it shorten's the install time. Until there is an install kit (assuming your cable to the street doesn't need replaced) with a splitter, self install disk and any other misc. equipment needed, cable subscribers will never be added at the rate AOL adds dial-up subscribers.
If the back-log of potential subscribers were to grow 20X, and people had to wait months to be hooked-up, do you think they would wait? Probably not.
Look at ATHM's subscriber projections, they have slightly beat them every quarter. They know how long it takes to add subscribers, a pool of 20MM more will not change that, just add to the wait.
I'm not saying that some type of deal between AOL/ATHM is bad, I'm just saying that it won't help at the moment. In any event, AOL has 6 months before the tracking stock is issued. Once that happens, forget any type of buy-out, it's hands off for 3 years. Any type of deal will have to be made for access to the pipes only.
The latest announcement is that MSFT is negotiating with UMG (Media One), most recently purchased by AT&T for a 900+ million dollar buy-out of a cable TV franchise in Japan. ATHM has service in Japan, this will directly link MSFT, T, and ATHM......the time for an AOL deal is getting shorter. If MSFT & T become more entangled, it could squash a deal with AOL.
Debating is good for the thread, thanks for views!
Have a Happy Thanksgiving!
dailynews.yahoo.com
RichieH |
