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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 694.04

+0.7%

Jan 9 4:00 PM EST

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (34201)	11/26/1999 12:35:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Hope everything is OK now regarding your problems and sorry to hear you were having difficulties, you were sorely missed here. Borgan has a new update as of yesterday. As usual interesting to hear. vcall.com I didn't agree with all he said especially the SOX but he is the second person to view it that way. The main thing I found interesting was his call for Bonds to rise due to him believing the Fed will start taking away the liquidity they have been adding this year after Jan 3rd. He believes once the Y2K uncertainty passes, they will start pulling the fuel/glue which the Bonds will see as inflation friendly and cause a reversal in the long Bond. What he didn't mention and I deduced from this is our long known relationship of Federal liquidity injection and market action. The injection at a record pace of fuel to this market is what has driven the few street darlings up despite horrible internals, future earnings potential etc. If the Fed takes this away after the new year begins, we could see a substantial correction which would fall in line with my on going prediction for next spring to be the end of the bull for a long while. Everything I have says this will end next spring but I had no spark to explainthe why. This may be my missing link. Market internals deteriorating while the market marches up to unsustainable levels, a final short squeeze into the new millenium then just as everyone finally gives up and buys with 100% returns in thier rear view mirrors, the Fed takes the glue away, everyone awakens from thier drug induced, brain damaged mania and poof, the bubble bursts. I do have multiple buy signals so I am expecting some sort of rotation to start again since I have sell on many things but buys on others. The problem is that the issues I have buys on are not strong enough to hold the indexes up. Either they need to move in unison or else the indexes could pullback some next week. It will be interesting to see if money just leaves or if it rotates to the over sold issues I show. These buy signal sby the way are only short term ones so I don't expect much in the way of movement. Good Luck, Lee

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