From that person's comments/analysis of Red Hat in that post:
Message 12093902
He says:
But at this price, the expectations built into Linux sales are too tremendous to believe
and
Red Hat has just 0.17% institutional ownership, with 17 institutions owning 502,000 shares (Source: Vickers). That's an average of just 30,000 shares each. Red Hat is basically entirely in the hands of the public. As such, it is subject more to sentiment than any kind of business analysis. In fact, at $165 the stock could be ready for a split. When that happens, the stock might look cheap again at $50 a share, meaning an increase in demand. But now that it is disconnected from the underlying business, it has become as risky as your average bulletin board stock, since the price will trade on overall sentiment, not business trends. When this happens, there is really nothing left to analyze but investor sentiment, and that is best left to pure gamblers, not investors. - RVG
I could be wrong, of course, but I think this analyst is missing the bigger picture of Linux.
smartmoney.com
[excerpts]
November 12, 1999
The Real Threat to Microsoft
Linux sets things in motion. Microsoft built all its power on software code that made computers easy to use and valuable for businesses. Now that business craves the Internet, Microsoft can't rely on updated versions of its operating system for growth. It needs to make software for running the servers that house and transmit Internet information. That's where Linux becomes a potential dragon slayer. Linux is easy to adapt to, because it's a lot like Unix, which is itself comparable to Windows NT. But where Microsoft's revolutionary move was to convert text commands into icons, Linux's quantum step was to let software developers all over the world test and enhance it for free.
...
So how can Linux pose a threat?
The answer is all around you, in the expanding use of the Web. As Koznetski explains, the increased speed and computing power of the networks that deliver the Web is driving manufacturers to provide all sorts of devices to connect to it. These devices, from phones to set-top boxes to personal organizers, need to be relatively cheap in order to attract a critical mass of buyers. Windows CE, the relevant operating code, costs between $50 and $70, Koznetski says, while Linux upgrades and enhancements are free once a buyer has bought or licensed a single copy. And the threat isn't just to Windows CE. If a cost-cutting manufacturer builds a Linux-powered Web-connected device with a calendar, a consumer can work quite happily on that device without another copy of Microsoft Office, which in turn makes her less dependent on Windows. "That is kind of a frightening model for Microsoft," says Koznetski. |
