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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK)

NOK 6.835

-1.1%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (2843)	11/26/1999 10:56:00 AM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (4) of 34857

I gather the response is that the US/CDMA still arent very important markets.....Let me just try and run through some numbers from memory. These are probably all numbers announced from industry... The total market for cell phones this year is estimated to be about 270m units. The CDMA portion of this is about 40m. Nokia is probably on pace to sell 80m phones (I believe this is the high side of all of the estimates). Nokia's worldwide marketshare is about 30%. Their non-CDMA marketshare is close to 35%. Estimates are all over the map for next year but I will take an estimate of about 370m mobile phones being sold next year. The CDMA portion is supposed to be about 70m. Let's say ASP's decline 20%. Nokia likely needs about 40% growth in their mobile phone unit to justify their current PE. Do you have any idea how these numbers work out? It basically means that if Nokia continues to ignore the CDMA market that they will need to go from 35% market share in non-CDMA phones to nearly 45% marketshare. I really hope Nokia has a killer GSM strategy worked out....either that or someone needs to tell MOT/ERICY to stop shipping so many phones. Now I am sure that the numbers are probably a little off....however the basic trends are in place. Nokia will need to grab increasingly insane amounts of marketshare in the GSM/TDMA world if they dont have competitive CDMA offerings. The law of large numbers will eventually get everybody. Oh yeah....it isnt just PCS which has deemphasized Nokia. The current nation-wide campaign by AT&T features the digital Startac for their One-Rate plan. I sincerely hope that Nokia manages to sell a lot of those 8860/Wap phones....they will need to. Happy Thanksgiving Tero.....Hope you enjoyed your day off. I figured I should really let my US-centric view of the world take over <g>....best of luck. Slacker

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