Technically, I'm thinking today and Monday are looking like good days to buy some of the OSX issues for a trade riding the OSX back up to 90 or so. I'm looking at FLC and GLBL in particular. But I won't do any buying unless I see a positive move on the 10 minute charts.
Gary Burton -- if you're out there -- I was looking at the longer term OSX charts (weekly charts), and I was wondering about a possible E-wave read which fits with my reading of the MACD.
My read would be that wave 1 of the OSX rally started at 45 in October 1998 and lasted until November 1998. That was followed by a long 3 wave correction back to the 40's, lasting until the end of February 1999. Wave 3, then, ran from March 1999 until September 1999. The wave 4 correction then took the OSX back to the 60's, and ended in mid-October. Now, we are in wave 5, and more specifically completing sub-wave iv of 5. Sub-wave v of 5 should take the OSX back above the September 1999 high. This would complete a first 5 wave move from the lows, I think (call that a larger wave 1). It certainly would appear that way on the weekly charts. And, at that point, we are likely to see bearish divergences in the daily and weekly MACD, which would lead to the next correction. My guess (based on corrections in other sectors) is that the OSX correction would last perhaps 3 months. After such a correction, which would be a larger wave 2, the OS sector would be primed to begin the larger wave 3 (B2K), possibly in the second quarter of 2000.
Obviously some OS stocks vary from the OSX. FLC, for example, made its bottom in February 1999 and began its wave 1 at that time. By my reading, though, FLC has caught up with the OSX and is now in wave 5. If my reading is at all in the ballpark, I would look for the 16's in FLC over the next few weeks.
And, if the OSX absolutely explodes upward in the next couple of weeks and the bearish divergences don't develop, I would not be a seller. But that would take an extraordinary move.
Just one man's technical opinion. |
