Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: The Ox who wrote (55467)	11/26/1999 1:22:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Michael, sorry to say, nope. It is my view that oil consumption is so directly tied to the business cycle that it is forever destined to be "boom and bust". To me those words are just another way of saying "cyclical". It is also my view that THIS cycle will be of greater magnitude and duration than the '97 cycle. Consider how much OPEC would have to cut production to obtain prices even in the teens if the world or even just Asia was still mired in recession. It would sure have to be more than 7%. Having said that, I also believe it will be the LAST major upcycle in my life time. Come '10 my work shows that this worldwide economic cycle will peak out and the "Mother of all Depressions" will begin to set in. The US economy will peak first followed by Europe then Asia. Oil consumption will drop like a rock and many of the companies we discuss on this board will go bk. Tremendous fortunes will be made shorting them. But like Yogi says "It ain't over till it's over." And it ain't over. JMVVHO Bull

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