Bubbles Bull responds on "tip toeing through the tulips" <g>
Are there tulips galore, yup. But during this US bull market, (which I say started in '82 (remember '82? <g>)) there has been sector after sector that went tulip on us. Did that change the basic trend of the market for 18 years - no. I can remember the biotech bubble, the environmental bubble, the internet bubble, the OSX bubble <g> etc and so forth. So to say that because any given sector goes bubbles does not indicate with any degree of certainty that THE top is in. While I find the NYSE ad line as disturbing as any body on the thread and do not totally discount it, I would hasten to that we now live in a world wide economic structure. Therefore, I find the positive breadth expressed in world markets currently, largely over rides the negatve breadth in one market, and largely tells the real story.
So then the $64,000 question becomes does the NYSE ad line predict the immanent onset of a major US bear market that drags the rest of the world down with it? I can construct a major bear market scenario based on the price of oil that would make many on this thread happy. But, it is the only such bear market scenario I see, which is why I am positioned in oil related issues and will stay so for a good long time.
Over the weekend I will develop the demographicaly based spending wave model in far more detail than I have before. It will be the LAST time I will do so. People will then begin to see, I hope, that I am not some mindless, pollyanaish, buy every dip, trees grow to the skies buffoon that some take me to be. I will also discuss the recent WTO agreements between China, the US, and now Canada that I believe to be be incredibly bullish. Till then, best wishes.
Bubbles Bull |
