Joan and friends, I think our old friend Bill (Fleckenstein) is on to something. Perhaps a new forward looking internet indicator for now (things always change with the internets but it looks good for now).
When AOL was about to split Bill wrote that AOL might be a "litmus test" for internets. Since AOL was down the other day and many internets were up, Bill now wonders now how good is this litmus test.
I think it is something to watch except I think it is now like GE is as a DOW indicator, slightly forward looking. On most days GE will tell you what the DOW is doing or will do (after you weed out news,etc). I think AOL is telling us what internets are about to do. Bill wanted to watch AOL after the split to see if it broke out or took a hit after the split.
I've been watching AOL. It hits 85 and people dump it. To me it looks like a stock that is poised to take a hit. All that has to happen is for someone says boo and the Nasdaq and internets correct (like they should).
This past week I think we were looking at a lot of late to the party money (and we may even see more of it). Not trusting how some people play the game, I wouldn't be surprised if some are not talking up internets while taking profits. That is what I think AOL is telling us. It is late, this has been a nice run, take the money and run. If I miss some of a run that is fine with me. You can lose everything made in weeks, in minutes when internets turn south.
I'll just sit here on this pile of powder for now. BILLY JACK is walking already, people are just missing it. A pullback/correction is coming, I can feel it and all indicators I watch tell me so.
Also the "classic" indicators say we are ready to take a hit. People are throwing money at stocks (eg ADSP,internets,etc.)and IPOs make an unproven company worth more than a company with real proven products and employees.
If we offered an IPO tomorrow for an unknown internet or someone could buy MSFT for the same price, in this market people would go for the IPO. MSFT IS one of the biggest internet companies there is, it is proven and the sky is the limit in the long run. Oh yeah, they do soft ware too. <VBG> Meanwhile you have the IPO that is losing money and may turn a profit in 2015 or maybe never.
I'm glad I raised the cash in the past week or so. What I sold has gone nowhere and the odds of a JACK SLAPPING have gone up. Joan said it best, we are sitting in the cat bird seat. Got our long terms riding and the powder waiting. Doubleplusgood! I'm just watching AOL and the rest of them go by, waiting for the running of the Sheepeople.
909S2ALL, Blue |
