I can tell you from experience in NYC that ALL the networks have problems here and I really wonder whether this ATT thing hasn't been blown out of proportion by those wishing for a CDMA conversion.
Dave, I think the real reason the pressure will be on ATT to convert is to increase network capacity. As networks fill up, prices will drop and carriers with less capacity will be at a competitive disadvantage. Also, HDR will make matters worse for carriers not able to realize these extra revenue streams. It has little to do with network performance issues from a subscriber standpoint although CDMA does hold the upper-hand here as well.
Anyway, I think it'll be very difficult for the now entrenched Armstrong to make the switcheroo even if he wants to, that it's probably far easier for him to just keep spending 2 bil here, 2bil there to "upgrade" his network than to go through the nightmare of explaining to shareholders that they're scrapping their whole network and starting over, of running 2 networks as they phase one out and the other one in, of giving everyone new phones, etc.
Yes, quite a conundrum. But if Armstrong is as astute as you imply then the decision won't be based upon "the nightmare of explaining to shareholders, etc." but upon dollars and cents. When to stop pouring dollars down the black hole? If I understand the difficulties of increasing subscriber density using TDMA, then as the network becomes more dense, the cost/subscriber does not continue to drop. At some point the ATT bean counters will have to say enough is enough and hopefully before the cheap minutes offered by CDMA carriers suck all the subs away. So, ATT can either acquire new spectrum and roll-out CDMA services concurrent with TDMA service and effect a gradual transition or subsidize dual-mode CDMA-TDMA handsets (when available) and then make the switch when all subs have dual-mode handsets. I think the first option will make the most sense but either option will eventually benefit Q in a big way.
Dave, I think it will take ATT about 1-2 years to offer CDMA services. How long do you think it will take (if at all)?
Bux
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