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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 659.00+1.0%Nov 21 4:00 PM EST
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To: bobby beara who wrote (34303)11/27/1999 1:47:00 PM
From: dennis michael patterson  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Jerry Favors:

November 26, 1999



Last month we forecasted the October 1999 low within one
trading day. We then stated that we expected a rally into a
short-term high near November 26, plus or minus 1 day. Two
weeks ago we gave subscribers an upside projection for the
Dow calling for a rally into 11056 plus or minus 117 points
intraday. The Dow bottomed on October 18 and has since
rallied 1311 points to an intraday high of 11195 on November
22.

Well, here we are right on November 26, the day the Cycles call
for a short-term top. The normal margin of error would call for a
short-term high between here and next Tuesday. The decline
from that high should last between one to three days. The
Nasdaq should also reach a high in this time frame. We would
then expect a decline of 1% to 4% on a closing basis in the
Nasdaq. Keep in mind that the correction we expect in this time
frame should be followed by another rally back near or above
11000 in the Dow, and to new highs in the Nasdaq. However,
we are not convinced the high is in quite yet. A decline below
10888 intraday in the Dow next week would confirm the
short-term top is in.

It remains our position that the Dow should ultimately reach new
highs.
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