Hi SO,
good to see you again. I like your posts, and you don't worry too much about fundamental stuff, PEs etc (btw, what is a P/E ? <gg>).
Just my two cents on "how high can it go ?" on the NAZ. I trade trends only and my little simple toolbox doesn't allow me to call a top/bottom.
Like almost everybody else i got a mega-buy signal on 10-28/29, and since then i've been trading long only. The trend is, of course, intact and i don't even have an oversold reading on my StochRSI(8,5). Oscillators arn't all that good in strong trends.
So, how high can it go ? Just to get a feeling where we are in a trend, i monitor the difference between the close and the 50 day SMA. The closing price can't defy the gravity of the average price, it always comes back. Like a rocket running out of gas. But how far can it get away ? So far the highest value has been 18.4%, reached on 1-11-99. Before that, the high was 16.6%, set on 2/6/91. Right now, we're at 16.4%. I would give it another 2-3% or max. 100 points. Then we'll get some kind of consolidation. If that will be sideways or down, i don't know. But the averages will get a chance to catch up.
Jurgen |
