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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (55531)11/28/1999 12:13:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
...on a serious note; Weather changes & the coming Nat Gas rally.

Got your Nat Gas "Rally Caps" on people ?

Teens & 20's across most of the Northern US this coming week. Low's at night in the 30's for 90% of the entire US.

The fundamentals of the supply side of the NG price equation are still bullish. Give the traders this week to absorb some chilly New England weather and watch sentiment change to match what should be some nice drawdowns coming once again in the API's.

This selloff in the E&P's was way overdone and not fundamentally supported. While NG took the brunt of the downside; the balanced producers with strong leverage to the outstanding crude oil prices such as; OEI PXD UPR have sold off to the same degree as the more "pureplays" on Nat Gas like BR & NBL.

I loaded NBL as my "play" on Nat Gas and have OEI as my #1 overall holding here in my portfolio, along with solid positions in PXD & UPR and also a moderate position in FST.

I really like OEI's offshore exploration upside, their balanced production with strong leverage to crude oil and the oversold fundamental valuation here.

NBL is very, very interesting. Imho; there is no longer ANY reason to play the smaller caps presently; with NBL & BR off nearly as much as the smaller caps & much more likely to be the boost from institutional buying once the sentiment and/or the weather change positively for Nat Gas. NBL has a huge increase in cap ex spending in 2000 over 1999. The production upside over last year is very great and their cfps is enormous. This could be a $45-55+ (@6-7 x $7 to $8 cfps) stock very easily in 2000 if Nat Gas fundamentals remain strong in the coming quarters.

... could be an interesting next week-10 days for Nat Gas & the E&P's here.
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