Jim, I think that there are an increasing number of encroachments to their status "from beneath" and increasingly from "broadside" that they must be ever more wary of. The question becomes this: How many fronts can Chambers continue to defend, before major cracks and fissures begin to show up on the infrared fault detectors?
They've handled this in an exemplary manner up until now, while most of the startups were merely emulating the model which they (CSCO) helped to make popular. But there are some new philosophical trends in inter-networking, some of which are profound, which say 'pooh pooh' to IOS. These are most notably in the optical domain, and these will give CSCO new cause to regroup and to reevaluate their strategies, I believe, in ways which trascend the obvious need to remain "current."
At some point their Internetworking Operating System (IOS), alone, will not cut it any longer, as the IP core goes away by hiding in the edge. The new core is increasingly optical, at Layers 1 and below, assisted, granted, by pointers at Layers 2 and 3. But the meat of it is patently optical, and optical has not been their historical strong point. Even if they acquire a Pirelli or an Adva, or the dwdm division of another top tier (e.g., ALA, Ericcy), and add these to the assets they already have in the way of Monterey's and Cerent's, it will still take them a long time (if ever) for them to mold a paradigm that is distinctly theirs, as opposed to what the rest of the world is already on their way to doing. I see an inflection point on the horizon, in some respects, but I could be wrong. Comments welcome.
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I know that some of these views are now becoming popular throug some recent writings and a growing mood beging felt by others. I would advise anyone who is skeptical about the originality of the above views to note the date on the following link. The following is only a most recent example, due to the search limitation here in SI:
techstocks.com
Regards, Frank Coluccio |
