Larry,
Don't you think that even though the SEC filings don't say much about OEM samples to date, they now have sent samples to over 40 (as per the last CC). Seems incredible that they could have done so without having done all the prior footwork. Did the SEC filings say that they would have over 40 by now ? So how can you forecast Larry from reading SEC filings ?
Likewise, how do you know that some tweaking does not mean just a few days of work to get to full production capacity ?
If VLNC has $80M capacity and Hanil by mid-year will have over $120M capacity(12M cells x $10) at 50% profit sharing , then at your own 15% margin and 45M shares and 50P/E, we get $23.3 as the valuation. If we get 20% margins, then the price should be over $30. Not a bad return, better than Treasuries(which I still recommend for you). These are fairly conservative estimates, not something outlandish.
Finally, Larry, Lev says over and over that how fast they ramp up will depend on customer acceptance. Per Lev's statement, the biggest hurdle is that a redesign must be done to use VLNC cells. He seems quite confident of the production capacity numbers. He also says he is not ready to forecast revenue numbers for hockey-sticks. Larry, hockey stick means up , way up!
Larry, if you made money on VLNC why do you complain so ? |
