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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: tejek who wrote (81271)	11/29/1999 12:25:00 AM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) of 1572884

Ted, <so you are saying we have no idea how many chips per wafer?> Yes, that and a few other things. Look at it this way - AMD will be producing K6-2+s, Athlon selects, Athlons, Athlon Pros, and Athlon Ultras over the span of next 12 months (and possibly some Flash on Fab 25). It is very hard to estimate what the unit ouput will be unless one makes a number of assumptions. The variability of these assumptions can be large - especially if Athlon with built-in L2 becomes the mainstream. At this time I think one can reasonably predict a baseline of 2-3Mu Athlon varients and 2-3 Mu K6-2+s from Fab25. Anything above that should pretty much come from Dresden. By the way, the baseline is sufficient for about $1B+ in revenues per quarter so that is nothing to mock at (including Flash and other processor stuff). < BTW the more I look at the numbers, Dresden appears to be a fairly small fab although there is considerable room for expansion and I am sure the Germans would be happy to accommodate.> Dresden, once on-line, should become a large fab rather quickly. At full capacity we are talking about potentially $2B in revenues per quarter! Chuck

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