DOW UPDATE: Dow closed at DOW 10,988 on Friday and this is the third failure in a row to close above this DOW 11,050 since the one day high watermark close of DOW 11,089.
Tomorrow we are going to see DOW 10,880 minimum test and I will not be surprised to see this number get taken out on the close. Lower support is DOW 10,720 and it is this support level which must hold if Bulls are going to get their year-end rally. A close below DOW 10,720 should signal high alert that the trading band on the high end is in but let us see if it is confirmed by deterioration across the board by interest rate sensitive indices and the overdue pullback in technology laden indices. Keep an eye on TRAN levels to confirm UTIL low is not a fluke. TRAN is at TRAN 2,909 and above the lows of TRAN 2,808 set October 20th.
Look for TRAN to close in on this low like a homing pigeon with UTIL break of UTIL 280 and test of new intraday low of UTIL 278... These levels incidentally take us back to September 14, '98 --- when DOW was at DOW 7,945.... DOW 9,500 between now and year-end doesn't look like outrageous call with break of established supports on UTIL 280 and TRAN 2,808. However, we must take small steps... DOW 10,880 must first break, followed by DOW 10,720.. Let us watch to see if we slice thru these established supports like knife thru butter or brick cheese.
DOW upside levels need two closes above DOW 11,080 for Bulls to re-establish control.
Best Regards, J.T. |
