Until data is actually demonstrated in a full-up system, with lots of demand, I think it unlikely that TDMA carriers are going to switch. Even then, a switch isn't assured. (Has AT&T switched to CDMAOne now that the cost advantage is obvious to anyone who is paying attention? No. Too much momentum, and still a fair amount of FUD.) Would you, personally, switch to something like W-CDMA? Install GPRS? If not, why not? How many of those same reasons apply to HDR? I suspect most (e.g. is the actual capacity advantage there in the real world, are the ASICs available, do calls drop too much, is there demand,...).
I agree with most of your post although I think ATT will start to deploy CDMA in a time-frame a lot closer to a year or two than your outside time-frame of up to five years. Yesterday I wrote that ATT will not switch until it is more profitable to do so and then some. I think the rapid drop in infrastructure costs that is likely to happen in the next two years will encourage this change. I don't agree that TDMA carriers are waiting for CDMA data services to be up and running before they switch, they know it is coming soon but are looking at other things to determine the timing. ATT hasn't switched yet because their TDMA equipment will be worth less than zero when they rip it out (they will pay to get rid of it) and they can still squeeze some profit from it. CDMA equipment prices are dropping, they will choose a time they feel is advantageous.
To answer your questions, no I wouldn't switch to GPRS or EDGE, not because they are untested, but because I don't think they would offer the capacity, ease and flexibility of build-out, and performance and resistance to multi-path interference of HDR and 1XRTT. I would want to make sure the HDR ASICS were available, and worked as promised regardless of any guarantees that were offered. I think that is what Qualcomm's investment in the Korean HDR build-out is intended to address. I'm sure there will be delays and surprises, but probably not of the magnitude we will see with GPRS and EDGE. Time will tell.
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