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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: tejek who wrote (81389)	11/29/1999 12:22:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (3) of 1572777

Ted, Re:"AMD at 1Ghz by Jan 2000" Well sure is an interesting day folks. The key is that they only introduced ONE speed grade. That means that from AMDs 0.18 micron process the parts are all 750 Mhz and above!!! Now there is usually a bell shaped curve around the speed mid-point. With good process control that speed distribution may be plus or minus 15%. What this means is that the bottom of the yield curve is yielding 750. That means that AMD can ship a decent yield with a 25% speed bump. And a 25% speed bump gets us over 900Mhz. I don't know about 1Ghz but I now believe that AMD should be able to ship 800/850/900Mhz speed grades in Q1 2000. Who would have thunk it??? With 2-3M Athlons in Q1 even a 10% bin split can yield 200-300K 900Mhz Athlons. With this speed grades they should be able to average $300ASP for Athlons. Q1 numbers get pretty interesting with 3M at $300 for AThlon, Say 4M k6-2 at 50 and say $400M for flash/chipsets/comms etc. Hmmmm...time to look at $50 AMD April calls methinks. regards, Kash

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