<<I'll bet you a $1 we see a contract in December.>>
I hope you are correct.
<<Walter took a guess that contracts were several months off.>>
You are right about me making a guess. First of all, a December announcement would be like giving the shareholders a Christmas present. EDIG does not have a history of providing Christmas presents to its shareholders.
Second, in that internet interview, Falk made a few statements:
- EDIG is not concerned about entering the market so late with its reference design because the market for this product will not take off until the major music labels start providing content.
- The major music labels will provide content when they FEEL comfortable about the security of their music.
- SDMI is having a meeting this week in Maui.
- According to the rumors that Falk has heard and is spreading, the major music labels will begin to provide content in the first quarter of 2000.
- He does not know exactly how much music will be provided in the first quarter, but it will be more than what is provided now.
So, the major label content will not be provided until the first quarter of 2000? So, not January and probably not February and just might spill into the second quarter. Who knows? It's just a "rumor" spread by Falk.
So, this OEM that decides to start shipping during or after the first quarter is going to miss out on the Christmas push.
Does this OEM want to start a nine month, six month, or three month advertising campaign? If they advertise soon they have to advertise long because there will be other new and improved players coming to the market in June and September. The longer the advertising campaign the lower the profits.
Will this OEM wait until the market matures a bit more... wait for actual content from major labels and not make deals on rumors of major label content?
So, how soon before a shipment date would the OEM NEED to sign a contract?
Will the OEM wait until the major labels PUBLICLY (not rumor) put their seal of approval on the final SDMI specifications?
IF
(1) a contract has not already been signed,
(2) production has not already begun,
(3) Christmas provides the best opportunity to sell product,
(4) major record labels will not provide content until months after Christmas,
(5)more new and improved, feature rich, multi-codec player designs may be introduced in the first quarter of 2000, and
(6) it only takes a consumer electronics OEM a few months to set-up production, then what is the rush to sign a contract?
Why not sign a contract in August 2000, start advertising on the internet in September (give-aways) or even later in anticipation of Christmas 2000? |
