Kenneth,
As Ibexx pointed out to someone else, you may want to go back and review some of the posts on this thread over the past two weeks. I think that you assesment is a bit off.
Microsoft is the house, and the house makes the rules. While you can play and occassionaly win a few hands, in the end the house allways wins in the big scheme of things.
Unless you Learn to Play the Earnings Game (at least when it comes to MSFT) or at least realize what you are playing against then you may mistakenly be placing your capital at risk. I have a quote from an article pasted below, you may want to go to Fortune's site and read the whole thing. The choice is yours, just go in with all the information and both sides of the story.
LEARN TO PLAY THE EARNINGS GAME (AND WALL
STREET WILL LOVE YOU)
The pressure to report smooth, ever higher earnings has never been fiercer. You don't want to miss the consensus estimate by a penny--and you don't have to.
Justin Fox
Reporter Associate Rajiv Rao
"Nowadays its (MSFT) executives treat analysts to a constant patter
of cautionary and even downbeat words about the future that the analysts say is a mix of genuine paranoia and astute expectations
management. After a typically grim presentation by CEO Bill Gates and sales chief Steve Ballmer at an analysts' meeting two years ago, Goldman Sachs analyst Rick Sherlund ran into the pair outside and said, "Congratulations. You guys scared the hell out of people." Their response? "They gave eachother a high five," Sherlund recalls. But Microsoft, unlike some companies less attuned to the rules of this game, also lets analysts know when they're too pessimistic. That's what CFO Mike Brown did, along with the usual warnings about slower growth ahead, during his regular quarterly conference call after the January 17 earnings release. He told the hundreds of analysts, money managers, and journalists listening in that earnings would be "more than a nickel, less than a dime" higher than predicted for the current quarter, and another penny higher in the next.
pathfinder.com@@OBqoqgcASKsEB@bM/fortune/1997/970331/ear.html
Lastly, remember IBEXX's post a few back where the analyst talked about earnings up sharply and see in the excerpt where MSFT guides the analysts to the correct earnings range. If things were going to bad or down, MSFT would have said something a couple of weeks ago. They did not which means earnings will be up sharply, and the stock will not tank on Friday.
Regards and best of luck with whatever strategy you employ,
Brian Malloy |
