Bill,
I'm not predicting anything, just pointing out the possibilities of how to increase the float to draw in fund managers/instituional investors. The $15-$20 amount in a 2 or 3 for 1 split was chosen for the example because this would gravitate the post-split stock price in a $5 to $7 range (depending on the split ratio).
IT IS JUST AN EXAMPLE, AN EXTRAPOLATION OF POSSIBILITIES. All I'm doing here is putting myself in the decisionmaker's shoes, establishing a few basic goals, making a few assumptions, then developing a scenario of possible actions. Future reality? Who knows. All I do know is everyone develops such scenarios in much of everything they do to prepare for the future. In my scenarios, I building them so that I can set reasonable expectations which can be compared to reality when we catch up with the future (kind of metaphysical here, maybe a little science fiction-like -- next I'll be talking about alternative universes! <VBG>). Of course, if reality does not match my scenario-based expectations, I would be (1) disappointed, then I would (2) compare reality to my expectations to learn something more and see if the situation is better or worse than I consider reasonable for the near and long-term.
WARNING! WARNING! WARNING! SPECULATION APPROACHING! (Can't you just hear Robbie the Robot in those words...Remember "Lost in Space" and the great lines given to Robbie)
$15 a share? $20? More? The conservative in me (gut feeling only) thinks $15+ is 18-24 months off. Lots of unknowns because turnarounds do not always stay on schedule (that's why they are such a challenge). Societal trends (re: theme behind Motor Sports) may prove more fad than long-term. Personally, I find motor sports boring, but then again, I like to watch baseball (which many others find ZZZZzzzzz stuff). Also, a lot depends on PR/communications in the future, a weaving of a story to the right people at the right time, as part of an overall marketing strategy. So far, I'm not sure of the quality of marketing efforts across the board. Some days I think GIFS has a handle on comprehensive marketing with a strong focus on relationship marketing, and other days, I really wonder. Lots of reasons for this seesaw, but overall, makes feel conservative.
Now, the aggressive side of me thinks GIFS can reach $15 a share within 6-9 months, especially if the $1M plus a month coming in is leverage effectively. There are indications GIFS management has a handle on acquisitions, focusing turnarounds, and feeding working capital and management talent into real profitable businesses. It would not take much more than 2 or 3 key actions, i.e. a few things to hit on all cylinders with current and newly acquired businesses to push GIFS EPS about $1 or even $2 per share. (I can think of two acquisition candidates for GIFS right now that just need cash flow and enhanced marketing to build a 45 to 70 degree line on a stock price chart.)
Bottom Line: I'm staying conservative for now. I let my aggressive, positive side out now and then. It is fun to dream of possibilities, but my positive side is under tight control.
And the adventure continues... |
