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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 677.58+0.3%Nov 5 4:00 PM EST
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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (34334)11/29/1999 6:34:00 PM
From: StockOperator  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
Les,

The rise in rates has begun. Personally, I think it's possible to get a run as high as 6.75 on the long bond (most likely during the 1st quarter of the year). When you look at the timing of this move, with the bulk of the avgs (DOW, RUT, Tran, S&P) still attempting to break through these major patterns established, the timing of this rise will with out a doubt make it that much harder to challenge these breakouts. Fortunate for us these avgs, imo, excluding the NAZ of course, have very little room for slippage. Their upward trendlines are dictating that a move to the upside (if it's going to happen) should play out early here as the market must continue with its momentum established. In other words I do not believe the markets overall have time to reconsider this rising interest rate environment. At least not yet. Perhaps all hell will break loose at the top of their range (rates). As I pointed out in my previous post I am watching stocks like DELL very carefully (went higher today). Dell as well as the major avgs. are poised to push higher in price. The gap on the NAZ 3420 was just about filled today. Tomorrows close will be a good first clue overall. Do we start to breakdown here? Or will we close this gap and finish higher at the end of the day. Something I will be watching very carefully, as I said earlier the way the patterns have played out I do not believe the markets have time to dwell on rates.

Watching and waiting. Good trading.

SO
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